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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."